A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
