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The Reform UK leader depicts his Reform UK party as a distinct phenomenon that has exploded on to the world stage, its rapid ascent an remarkable epochal event. But this week, in every one of Europe’s leading countries and from India and Thailand to the United States and South America, hard-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization parties similar to his are also leading in the opinion polls.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the conservative, pro-Putin populist Andrej Babiš toppled the head of government Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just forced the resignation of yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the presidential race and the legislature. In Germany, the right-wing AfD party is currently the leading party. Hungary’s Fidesz party, Slovakia's governing alliance and the Italian political group are already in power, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Netherlands’ Freedom party (PVV) and Belgian Vlaams Belang – all hardline nationalists – are part of an global alliance of opponents of global cooperation, motivated by right-wing influencers like Steve Bannon, seeking to overthrow the international rule of law, weaken human rights and destroy international collaboration.

The Populist Nationalist Surge

The populist nationalist surge exposes a new and unavoidable truth that democrats ignore at our peril: an nationalist ideology – once thought toppled with the historic barrier – has supplanted neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of firsts: “US priority”, “Indian focus”, “Chinese emphasis”, “Russia first”, “my tribe first” and often “my tribe first and only” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of many autocratic states and fewer democratic ones, and this ideology is the driver behind the violations of international human rights law not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every one of the world’s 59 cross-border conflicts and civil wars.

Understanding the Underlying Forces

Crucial to grasp the underlying forces, widespread globally, that have fuelled this recent nationalist era. It begins with a broadly shared perception that a globalisation that was open but not inclusive has been a free for all that has been unjust to all.

For more than a decade, leaders have not only been delayed in addressing to the many people who feel left out and marginalized, but also to the shifting dynamics of world economic influence, transitioning from a unipolar world once dominated by the US to a multi-power landscape of competing superpowers, and from a rules-based order to a power-based one. The nationalist ideology that this has provoked means open commerce is being replaced by protectionism. Where economics used to drive government policies, the politics of nationalism is now driving financial choices, and already more than 100 countries are running protectionist strategies characterized by bringing production home and friend-shoring and by restrictions on cross-border trade, investment and technology transfer, sinking global collaboration to its lowest ebb since 1945.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

But all is not lost. The cement is still wet, and even as it solidifies we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the world's population. In a recent survey for a prominent organization, of thousands of individuals in 34 countries we find a clear majority are more resistant to an divisive nationalist agenda and more inclined to support global teamwork than many of the officials who rule over them.

Globally there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a limited number of hardened anti-internationalists representing 16.5% of the global population (even if 25% in the United States currently) who either feel peaceful living between diverse communities is unattainable or have a win-lose perspective that if they or their nation do well, it has to be at the cost of others doing badly.

However there are an additional group at the other end, whom we might call dedicated globalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through free commerce as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what an influential thinker calls “locally engaged global citizens”.

The Global Majority's Stance

Most people of the world's citizens are moderate in views: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “America first” ideology would suggest, or fully global citizens. They are devoted to their country but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “our side” and the “others”, opponents always divided from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Are most moderates favor a duty-free or a responsible global community? Are they prepared to accept responsibilities beyond their garden gate or community boundaries? Affirmative, under specific circumstances. A initial segment, 22%, will support humanitarian action to alleviate hardship and are ready to act out of altruism, backing disaster relief for disaster zones. Those we might call “good cause” cooperation advocates feel the pain of others and believe in something bigger than themselves.

Another segment comprising a similar percentage are pragmatic multilateralists who want to know that any public funds for global progress are spent well. And there is a final category, 21%, self-interested multilateralists, who will approve cooperation if they can see that it advantages them and their local areas, whether it be through guaranteeing them basic necessities or peace and security.

Building a Cooperative Majority

Thus a clear majority can be built not just for humanitarian aid if money is well spent but also for global action to deal with global problems, like environmental emergency and pandemic prevention, as long as this case is presented on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we emphasize the mutual advantages that flow to them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we work together from necessity or if we have a necessity for collaboration, the answer is each.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can reverse the xenophobic tide: we can defeat today’s negative, inward-looking and often aggressive and authoritarian patriotic extremism that demonises newcomers, foreigners and “different groups” as long as we champion a positive, globally engaged and welcoming national pride that responds to people’s desire to belong and connects to their everyday worries.

Addressing Public Concerns

Although in-depth polls tell us that across the west, unauthorized entry is currently the top concern – and no one should doubt that it must quickly be managed effectively – the public sentiment data also tell us that the public are even more concerned about what is happening in their own lives and within their own local communities. Last month, a prominent leader gave an emotional speech about how what’s good about Britain can overcome what’s negative, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “broken” and “deteriorating” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our economy and community.

However, as the leader also pointed out, the extreme right is more interested in exploiting grievances than ending them. A Reform leader praised a ill-fated economic plan as “the best Conservative budget” since the 1980s. But he would also implement a comparable strategy – what was intended – the largest reductions in government programs. Reform’s plan to cut government expenditure by a huge sum would not fix struggling areas but damage them, create social division and wreck any sense of unity. Under a hard-right regime, you will not be able to afford to be sick, impaired, poor or vulnerable. Continually from now on, and in every electoral district, Reform should be asked which medical facility, which school and which public service will be the first to be reduced or shut down.

Risks and Solutions

“This ideology” is neoliberalism at its most inhumane, more destructive even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond austerity. What the public are indicating all over the Western world is that they want their governments to restore our economies and our communities. “The party” and its global allies should be revealed repeatedly for policies that would harm both. And for those of us who believe our best days could be ahead of us, we can go beyond pointing out Reform’s hypocrisy by presenting a case for a improved nation that resonates not just to visionaries, but to realists, to personal benefit, and to the everyday compassion of the nation's citizens.