Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
